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Lewyn Addresses America

A little politics, a little urbanism- I also blog 100 percent on urbanism at and

Answer: No. 

My evidence is here.   In October ’79, Reagan was running seven points behind Carter.   And of course he won.

Furthermore, today’s trial heats (Romney vs. Obama, Perry vs. Obama etc) are probably less reliable than the trial heats of late 1979.  Why?  Because Reagan was, I think, more well known to voters in 1979 than Romney or Perry is today.  Reagan had fought Gerald Ford three years earlier in a year-long primary battle for the Republican nomination, a battle that did not end until the GOP convention in August.  By contrast, Perry has been a candidate for President for about a month, and Romney’s 2008 presidential campaign ended in February, only about a month after the first primary.


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