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Lewyn Addresses America

A little politics, a little urbanism- I also blog 100 percent on urbanism at https://www.planetizen.com/user/63 and http://www.cnu.org/blog/194

Polls show roughly a three-way tie.

But I think Santorum will win because he (1) has momentum, (2) in recent Iowa GOP caucuses, more right-wing candidates have outperformed their poll results (e.g. Huckabee ’08), (3) Santorum’s supporters are more enthuasistic than those of Romney.

More intangibly- imagine a Perry or Bachmann voter who realizes their candidate has zero chance of winning. Who are they more likely to switch to – a hard-core social conservative (Santorum),  a relative moderate (Romney) or a libertarian (Paul)?  I say the first.

Why not Paul?  If the caucuses had been held a week ago, I would say Paul wins.  But I think the bad publicity over arguably racist newsletters sent out under his name may have stalled his momentum.but I still think his supporters are more likely to turn out than those of Romney, propelling him into second.

By the way, all of this is pretty much the reverse of what I want to happen.  As readers of this blog know, I am a bit partial to Romney (though am still waiting to see if Hunstman rises from the dead before committing myself). Santorum is just too far right for me. .(Ron Paul is more tempting, but I’m not sure I can sum up my feelings about him in a one-sentence soundbite).

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