January 4, 2012 OK, I underestimated Mitt’s resilence
Iowa results in: Paul finished third, Romney wins, Santorum behind by 8 votes. I got Santorum surge right, but Romney’s mass media superiority and general air of electability gave him a little more oomph than I thought he had.
I don’t see where Mitt loses now. He already has NH in bag I suspect since he was already leading there before Iowa’s good news. Then comes SC, where Gingrich and Santorum try a last stand. Of course SC is a pretty right-wing state. But it is also a state that supports front runners (see, e.g., Dole 1996, McCain 2008) even if they are not the most right-wing candidate.
Romney could carry off a fifty-state sweep!