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Lewyn Addresses America

A little politics, a little urbanism- I also blog 100 percent on urbanism at https://www.planetizen.com/user/63 and http://www.cnu.org/blog/194

Let’s look at the record.  In his last Senate election, Santorum lost 59-41 (or more precisely, 58.7 percent to 41.3 percent) to Bob Casey.  That doesn’t seem real promising.

It could be argued that 2006 was a Democratic year.  So I looked at the Republican U.S. House vote to see if Santorum ran ahead or behind of his fellow Republicans.  In that year, Republicans got 43.7 percent of the two-party vote (even though many of them, unlike Santorum, lacked the advantage of incumbency).  Bottom line: Santorum ran 2.4 percent behind House Republicans, who were none too popular.

Does this mean Santorum can’t win in November? Absolutely not- if Obama is unpopular enough, the Republicans could probably nominate a homeless guy off the street and still win.  But it does suggest that Santorum will run a few points behind the generic Republican vote.

What about Romney?  Romney was elected governor in 2002 in Massachusetts, in a year in which no Republican came close to winning on a statewide basis.  (In fact, Republicans ran candidates for only four congressional districts; their strongest candidate got 34 percent of the vote).  On the other hand, Romney did not run for reelection so we will never know how well he wore over time.

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