August 14, 2012 What a Romney landslide would look like if it happened
The Obama strategy is based on the assumption that either (1) people who voted Republican in the 2010 midterms come home to Obama or (2) people who didn’t vote in 2010 vote disproportionately for Obama this time.
I don’t think either of these assumptions are necessarily wrong. But if the economy stinks and Democrats are demoralized enough, they might be. If that’s the case, what would the electoral college math look like?
Here are the state-by-state US House results for 2010. Republicans won the overall popular vote about 53-46. Dems only carried 15 states with around 185 or so electoral votes. All the swing states (and even Wisconsin!) went Republican.
Fun fact: Presidential election result was actually pretty close to prior midterm House result in past few elections (00, 04, 08). But on the other hand, not at all in 1996 or in any of the 1980s elections.