October 31, 2012 Maybe there will be ticket splitting after all
I just saw a Florida poll that apparently polled the same people for Senate and President.
It showed Romney and Obama tied at 47% each, but Nelson leading Mack 49-41. Among people who had already voted, a disproportionately Democratic group in Florida, Nelson similarly ran ahead of Obama, getting 60% to Obama’s 57%. Among the rest of the electorate, Nelson similarly ran 2 or 3 points ahead of Obama.
This difference might just be sampling error, so I am reluctant to infer too much from it. But if the results do reflect what people will do on Election Day, I think Nelson might pull out Florida even if Obama doesn’t.
There is also a poll in Ohio that is a bit less encouraging for the incumbent Democrat. On the positive (for Dems) side, both Obama and Sen. Brown lead, by about the same margins (Obama 48-45, Brown 46-41; there are more undecideds in the Senate race). Standing alone, these numbers imply that if Obama loses, Brown might go down with him.
On the other hand, among people who have already voted (and thus cannot choose the ‘undecided’ option) Brown runs ahead of Obama (60 percent to Obama’s 56).