November 7, 2012 Biggest surprise of the election
I was pretty surprised by the amount of split-ticket voting, and by how well the Dems did in Senate races. Democrats won four seats that I expected them to lose (Wisconsin, Virginia, Montana, North Dakota). The first two were perhaps examples of coattails voting: the Democrat won by slightly less or more than Obama’s victory margin. But in Montana and North Dakota, Democrats won in reliably Republican states.
Moreover, some Democrats who I expected to win won by margins that reflected high rates 0f split-ticket voting. For example, I thought McCaskill would win Missouri by a nose, and instead she clobbered Akin 54-39.