November 14, 2016 Is Clinton’s popular vote lead going to grow or shrink?
Someone on Facebook suggested that Trump might ultimately come out ahead in the popular vote, because absentee votes lean Republican.
I tried to prove/disprove this thesis by going to the RCP (Real Clear Politics) webpage the Sunday after the 2012 election. It seems to me that if Obama’s lead at that point was larger than his ultimate lead (that is, if Romney gained votes after that Sunday due to absentee ballots) the argument would be persuasive, if not not.
In fact, Obama only led by 2.7 points the Sunday after the election, but ultimately led by more than 4 pts. So this statistic supports the idea that Clinton’s lead will grow- maybe D-leaning California just counts votes more slowly. Not that it matters; the rules are what they are, and Trump is President under those rules.